President’s Message by W. David Harless Where Next? “If trouble comes when you least expect it then maybe the thing to do is to always expect it.” — Cormac McCarthy, The Road T HISISMYFINAL president’s column. Tradition would have me chronicle the activities of the VSB and our successes in 2012–13. However, that would mis-leadingly suggest that I am responsible in some fashion for the bar’s achieve-ments. To the extent the VSB has hon-ored its charge this year, all credit is due others. Foremost, Executive Director Karen Gould and our tireless and devoted bar staff have managed the VSB with consistent good judgment and stewardship. They are dedicated professionals who ensure that the bar meets its highest obligations — protec-tion of the public and service to the profession and the Virginia Supreme Court. I am deeply grateful for their service, their generous support of me, and their kind patience. Our lawyer volunteers are com-mitted to their service and unselfish with their time, and they deserve our gratitude. The professional needs of and demands on lawyers in Jonesville, Martinsville, Stanardsville, and Eastville contrast sharply with the needs and demands of attorneys in Northern Virginia, Richmond, Tidewater, and Roanoke. Members of our Council, conferences, sections, and committees from these and other local-ities across the state have worked col-laboratively to reach consensus and find solutions for issues related to our common interests and our differences. I have received sage counsel from many past presidents of the bar and our current officers. Mike Smith, Bill Dolan, Jeannie Dahnk, David Bobzien, Irv Blank, and George Shanks have extended generously their time and wisdom to inform my judgment. Finally, I am indebted to the statewide voluntary bar associations and their leadership for their steadfast support of the Supreme Court and the VSB. The VBA (Pia Trigiani, Hugh Fain, Tom Bagby), VTLA (Jack Harris), VADA (Elizabeth Perrow), and VWAA (Catherine Reese and Mary Grace O’Malley) have been at the forefront of public advocacy for the profession and the Court. So, where next? This is a danger-ous question. It reminds me of a col-league’s advice that when lawyers look into a crystal ball to foresee the future, they quite often come up with a mouth full of glass. At the risk of suffering this outcome, however, permit me to share some parting thoughts regarding devel-opments on the horizon that may have negative implications for the future availability and quality of legal services. We have lost in the past year some of the great leaders in our pro-fession. Chief Justice Carrico, U. S. District Judge Glen Williams, Harvey Chappell, Bob Patterson, Bill Poff, Betty Thompson, Don Clark, Murray Janus, Baxley Tankard, John Tate — all were masters of their courtrooms and the practice of law and were commit-ted public servants. Their deaths have created a void, perhaps permanent. This void portends a much broader problem — the effect of lawyer attri-tion on the public, our profession, and our justice system. From a 2012 study of its mem-bership, the Washington State Bar Association learned that 71 percent of its members were age 41 and older. 1 Fifty-one percent of the WSBA’s mem-bership was age 51 or older; 21 percent was age 61 or older. Based on survey responses by WSBA members, the study projected that within the next five years, 56 percent of the existing membership would retire, depart the profession other than through retire-ment, or reduce their professional practice. The Washington state demograph-ics are consistent with studies commis-sioned by the ABA from 1985 through 2012. 2 Additionally, demographics in Illinois suggest that the percentage of lawyers over age 50 is substantially greater in rural counties than in heavily populated counties. 3 I cannot vouch for the accuracy of these studies; the VSB has not con-ducted similar surveys. However, if Virginia’s demographics are compara-ble within a range of ±5 percent, the anticipated attrition of Virginia lawyers presents serious challenges to the future availability of legal services to the public, particularly in rural localities. The effects of attrition among senior lawyers are exacerbated by the anticipated decrease in the supply of entry-level attorneys. As of late January, law school applications for the fall of 2013 reportedly were down 20 percent from the preceding year, and down 38 percent from the preceding year. 4 Additionally, the number of entering law students in 2013 is expected to be the lowest since 1977. 56 These enrollment numbers strongly indicate that annual growth in our ranks will decrease. Finally, new graduates face chal-lenges that may aggravate the prob-lems. On March 8, 2013, a Special Committee of the Illinois State Bar Association issued a comprehensive 12 VIRGINIA LAWYER | April 2013 | Vol. 61 www.vsb.org